{"id":8872,"date":"2023-12-29T08:53:37","date_gmt":"2023-12-29T01:53:37","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/yinnilaodu.top\/?p=8872"},"modified":"2023-12-29T08:53:41","modified_gmt":"2023-12-29T01:53:41","slug":"%e6%80%bb%e7%bb%9f%e9%80%89%e4%b8%be%e6%9c%80%e6%96%b0%e8%b0%83%e6%9f%a5%e7%bb%93%e6%9e%9c%ef%bc%9aanies-vs-ganjar-vs-prabowo","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/yinnilaodu.top\/?p=8872","title":{"rendered":"\u603b\u7edf\u9009\u4e3e\u6700\u65b0\u8c03\u67e5\u7ed3\u679c\uff1aAnies Vs Ganjar Vs Prabowo"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

\u8c03\u67e5\u673a\u6784\u5173\u4e8e 2024-2029 \u5e74\u603b\u7edf\u548c\u526f\u603b\u7edf\u5019\u9009\u4eba\u9009\u4e3e\u80fd\u529b\u7684\u8c03\u67e5\u7ed3\u679c\u7ee7\u7eed\u53d1\u5e03\u3002\u4ee5\u4e0b\u662f CNBC Indonesia \u4ece 12 \u6708\u521d\u81f3\u5468\u4e09\uff082023 \u5e74 12 \u6708 27 \u65e5\uff09\u671f\u95f4\u5bf9 9 \u5bb6\u673a\u6784\u8fdb\u884c\u7684\u8c03\u67e5\u603b\u7ed3\u7684\u7ed3\u679c\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u6218\u7565\u4e0e\u56fd\u9645\u7814\u7a76\u4e2d\u5fc3 (CSIS)<\/strong>
\u5728 2023 \u5e74 12 \u6708 12 \u65e5\u9996\u573a\u603b\u7edf\u8fa9\u8bba\u540e\u516c\u5e03\u4e86\u4e00\u9879\u5173\u4e8e\u603b\u7edf\u548c\u526f\u603b\u7edf\u5019\u9009\u4eba\u5f53\u9009\u6027\u7684\u8c03\u67e5\u7ed3\u679c\u3002\u7ed3\u679c\uff0c\u666e\u62c9\u535a\u6c83-\u7eaa\u4f2f\u4f26\u4e24\u4eba\u7684\u5f53\u9009\u6027\u9886\u5148\uff0c\u5360\u6bd4 43.7%\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u8be5\u8c03\u67e5\u4e8e2023\u5e7412\u670813\u65e5\u81f318\u65e5\u8fdb\u884c\u3002\u8c03\u67e5\u91c7\u7528\u591a\u9636\u6bb5\u968f\u673a\u62bd\u6837\u8c03\u67e5\u65b9\u6cd5\u8fdb\u884c\uff0c\u6837\u672c\u91cf\u4e3a1,300\u4eba\uff0c\u5206\u5e03\u5728\u5370\u5ea6\u5c3c\u897f\u4e9a34\u4e2a\u7701\u4efd\u3002\u672c\u6b21\u8c03\u67e5\u7684\u8bef\u5dee\u8303\u56f4\u4e3a\u6b63\u8d1f 2.7%\uff0c\u7f6e\u4fe1\u5ea6\u4e3a 95%\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u8c03\u67e5\u53d7\u8bbf\u8005\u662f\u8c03\u67e5\u65f6\u5e74\u6ee1 17 \u5c81\u6216\u5df2\u5a5a\u7684\u5370\u5ea6\u5c3c\u897f\u4e9a\u5c45\u6c11\u3002\u8be5\u8c03\u67e5\u91c7\u7528\u95ee\u5377\u8c03\u67e5\u7684\u9762\u5bf9\u9762\u8bbf\u8c08\u6280\u672f\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u53d7\u8bbf\u8005\u88ab\u95ee\u53ca\u201c\u5982\u679c\u60a8\u76ee\u524d\u5728\u6295\u7968\u7ad9 (TPS)\uff0c\u60a8\u4f1a\u9009\u62e9\u8c01\u4f5c\u4e3a 2024-2029 \u5e74\u671f\u95f4\u7684\u603b\u7edf\u548c\u526f\u603b\u7edf\uff1f\u201d\u3002\u7ed3\u679c\u5982\u4e0b\uff1a<\/p>\n\n\n\n

– Anies Baswedan-Muhaimin Iskandar\uff1a26.1%<\/p>\n\n\n\n

– Prabowo Subianto-Gibran Rakabuming Raka\uff1a43.7%<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

– Ganjar Pranowo-Mahfud MD\uff1a19.4%<\/p>\n\n\n\n

– \u4fdd\u5bc6\/\u672a\u5b9a\uff1a6.4%<\/p>\n\n\n\n

– \u4e0d\u77e5\u9053\/\u4e0d\u56de\u7b54\uff1a4.5 %\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u6218\u7565\u4e0e\u56fd\u9645\u7814\u7a76\u4e2d\u5fc3\u653f\u6cbb\u4e0e\u793e\u4f1a\u53d8\u9769\u90e8\u4e3b\u4efb\u963f\u8389\u4e9a\u00b7\u8d39\u5c14\u5357\u5fb7\u65af\u8868\u793a\uff0c\u8fd9\u9879\u8c03\u67e5\u662f\u5728\u603b\u7edf\u8fa9\u8bba\u540e\u7684\u7b2c\u4e8c\u5929\u8fdb\u884c\u7684\u3002\u4ed6\u8fd8\u63d0\u9192\u8bf4\uff0c\u9009\u4e3e\u53ef\u80fd\u4f1a\u6839\u636e\u653f\u6cbb\u53d1\u5c55\u800c\u53d8\u5316\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201c\u6240\u4ee5\u8fd9\u662f\u6211\u4eec\u5728\u7b2c\u4e00\u573a\u8fa9\u8bba\u540e\u5f97\u5230\u7684\u5730\u56fe\u3002\u4e09\u4f4d\u5019\u9009\u4eba\u8fd8\u6709\u65f6\u95f4\u5e76\u5e0c\u671b\u52a0\u5f3a\u4ed6\u4eec\u7684\u653f\u6cbb\u5ba3\u4f20\uff0c\u4e24\u79cd\u60c5\u51b5\u90fd\u53ef\u80fd\u56e0\u4e3a\u6709\u8fa9\u8bba\u800c\u7565\u6709\u4e0a\u5347\u6216\u4e0b\u964d\uff0cArya \u5728 YouTube CSIS \u4e0a\u5c55\u793a\u8c03\u67e5\u7ed3\u679c\u65f6\u8bf4\u9053\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u5370\u5ea6\u5c3c\u897f\u4e9a\u653f\u6cbb\u6307\u6807<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u5468\u4e8c\uff082023\u5e7412\u670826\u65e5\uff09\uff0c\u5370\u5ea6\u5c3c\u897f\u4e9a\u653f\u6cbb\u6307\u6807\u516c\u5e03\u4e86\u53c2\u52a02024\u5e74\u603b\u7edf\u9009\u4e3e\u7684\u4e09\u5bf9\u603b\u7edf\u548c\u526f\u603b\u7edf\u5019\u9009\u4eba\u5bf9\u7684\u5f53\u9009\u6a21\u62df\u7ed3\u679c\u3002\u7ed3\u679c\uff0c\u666e\u62c9\u535a\u6c83-\u5409\u5e03\u5170\u5bf9\u4f18\u4e8e\u5176\u4ed6\u5019\u9009\u4eba\u5bf9\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u8be5\u8c03\u67e5\u4e8e2023\u5e7412\u670823\u65e5\u81f324\u65e5\u5bf91,217\u540d\u53d7\u8bbf\u8005\u8fdb\u884c\u3002\u6837\u672c\u9009\u62e9\u91c7\u7528\u968f\u673a\u6570\u5b57\u62e8\u53f7\u6cd5\uff08265 \u540d\u53d7\u8bbf\u8005\uff09\u548c\u53cc\u91cd\u62bd\u6837\uff08952 \u540d\u53d7\u8bbf\u8005\uff09\u8fdb\u884c\u3002\u8bef\u5dee\u8303\u56f4\u4e3a \u00b12.9%\uff0c\u7f6e\u4fe1\u5ea6\u4e3a 95%\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u5728\u8c03\u67e5\u4e2d\uff0c\u53d7\u8bbf\u8005\u88ab\u95ee\u53ca\u201c\u5982\u679c\u73b0\u5728\u4e3e\u884c\u603b\u7edf\u9009\u4e3e\uff0c\u60a8\u4f1a\u5728\u4ee5\u4e0b\u51e0\u5bf9\u540d\u5b57\u4e2d\u9009\u62e9\u8c01\uff1f\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cPrabowo-Gibran 46.7%\u3002\u8fd9\u4e5f\u662f\u8bc1\u5b9e\u4e86\u7684\uff0c\u56e0\u4e3a\u6628\u5929\u6709\u4e00\u4e2a\u548c\u6211\u4eec\u540d\u5b57\u76f8\u4f3c\u7684\u673a\u6784\u53d1\u5e03\u7684\u6d88\u606f\u3002\u6240\u4ee5\u6709\u5f88\u591a\u4eba\u95ee\u6211Prabowo-Gibran\u8c03\u67e5\u6307\u6807\u662f\u5426\u5df2\u7ecf\u89e6\u53ca50%\u4ee5\u4e0a\uff0c\u5370\u5ea6\u5c3c\u897f\u4e9a\u653f\u6cbb\u6307\u6807\u9996\u5e2d\u7814\u7a76\u5458 Burhanuddin Muhtadi \u5728\u5468\u4e8c\uff082023 \u5e74 12 \u6708 26 \u65e5\uff09\u7684\u6f14\u8bb2\u4e2d\u8868\u793a\uff0c\u201c\u6211\u4eec\u8fd8\u6ca1\u6709\u627e\u5230\u8fbe\u5230 50% \u7684 Prabowo-Gibran \u6570\u636e\uff0c\u76ee\u524d\u8fd8\u6ca1\u6709\u3002\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u4ee5\u4e0b\u662f\u6839\u636e\u5370\u5c3c\u653f\u6cbb\u6307\u6807\u8c03\u67e5\u5bf92024\u5e74\u603b\u7edf\u9009\u4e3e\u4e09\u5bf9\u603b\u7edf-\u526f\u603b\u7edf\u5019\u9009\u4eba\u7684\u5f53\u9009\u7387\u8fdb\u884c\u7684\u6a21\u62df\u7ed3\u679c\uff1a<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u666e\u62c9\u535a\u6c83-\u7eaa\u4f2f\u4f26\uff1a46.7%<\/strong> <\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u7518\u8d3e\u5c14-\u9a6c\u8d6b\u5bcc\u5fb7\uff1a24.5 % <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Anies-Cak Imin\uff1a21.0% <\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u4e0d\u77e5\u9053\/\u4e0d\u56de\u7b54\uff1a7.8%<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u56fd\u5bb6\u516c\u5171\u6307\u6807<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u56fd\u5bb6\u516c\u5171\u6307\u6807\u53d1\u5e03\u4e86\u5173\u4e8e 2024 \u5e74\u4e09\u5bf9\u603b\u7edf-\u526f\u603b\u7edf\u5019\u9009\u4eba\u7684\u5f53\u9009\u6027\u7684\u8c03\u67e5\u7ed3\u679c\u3002\u7ed3\u679c\uff0cPrabowo-Gibran \u9065\u9065\u9886\u5148\u4e8e\u5176\u4ed6\u4e24\u4f4d\u5019\u9009\u4eba\uff0c\u5f53\u9009\u7387\u8fbe\u5230 50.2%<\/strong>\uff1b<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u4f4d\u5c45\u7b2c\u4e8c\u7684\u662f 3 \u53f7\u5019\u9009\u4eba\u5bf9 Ganjar-Mahfud\uff0c\u5f53\u9009\u7387\u4e3a 23.1%\uff1b\u540c\u65f6\uff0c1 \u53f7\u5019\u9009\u4eba\u5bf9 Anies-Cak Imin \u7684\u5f53\u9009\u7387\u4e5f\u4e0b\u964d\u4e86\u662f22.7%\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u8be5\u8c03\u67e5\u4e8e 2023 \u5e74 12 \u6708 3 \u65e5\u81f3 11 \u65e5\u671f\u95f4\u8fdb\u884c\uff0c\u6d89\u53ca 34 \u4e2a\u7701\u4efd\u7684 1,670 \u540d\u53d7\u8bbf\u8005\u3002\u53d7\u8bbf\u8005\u4e3a17\u5c81\u53ca\u4ee5\u4e0a\u6216\u5df2\u6301\u6709\u8eab\u4efd\u8bc1\u7684\u5c45\u6c11\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u62bd\u6837\u65b9\u6cd5\u548c\u6570\u636e\u6536\u96c6\u65b9\u6cd5\u662f\u591a\u9636\u6bb5\u968f\u673a\u62bd\u6837\u548c\u501f\u52a9\u95ee\u5377\u7684\u76f4\u63a5\u8bbf\u8c08\u3002\u8bef\u5dee\u5e45\u5ea6\u636e\u79f0\u4e3a \u00b1 2.4%\uff0c\u7f6e\u4fe1\u5ea6\u4e3a 95%\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Kompas R&D<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Kompas R&D \u8c03\u67e5\u663e\u793a\u666e\u62c9\u535a\u6c83-\u7eaa\u4f2f\u4f26\u7684\u5f53\u9009\u7387\u4e3a 39.3%<\/strong>\u3002\u8fd9\u5bf9\u5019\u9009\u4eba\u5728\u8c03\u67e5\u4e2d\u6392\u540d\u7b2c\u4e00\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u7b2c\u4e8c\u4f4d\u662f Anies-Cak Imin\uff0c\u5176\u5f53\u9009\u7387\u4e3a 16.7%\u3002Ganjar-Mahfud \u7ec4\u5408\u4ee5 15.3% \u6392\u5728\u6700\u540e\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u7f57\u76d8\u7814\u7a76\u4e0e\u53d1\u5c55\u90e8\u8bb0\u5f55\u4e86 PDIP \u9009\u6c11\u5411\u666e\u62c9\u535a\u6c83-\u7eaa\u4f2f\u4f26\u7684\u8fc1\u79fb\u3002\u652f\u6301\u666e\u62c9\u535a\u6c83\u7684PDIP\u4eba\u6570\u4ece22.1%\u589e\u52a0\u523035.1%\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u57282019\u5e74\u603b\u7edf\u9009\u4e3e\u4e2d\uff0c\u6295\u7968\u7ed9\u4f50\u79d1\u7ef4\u7684\u9009\u6c11\u7684\u9009\u7968\u4e5f\u53d1\u751f\u4e86\u53d8\u5316\uff0c\u591a\u8fbe39.8%\u7684\u4eba\u6295\u7968\u7ed9\u4e86\u666e\u62c9\u535a\u6c83\uff0c\u53e6\u670927.4%\u7684\u4eba\u6295\u7968\u7ed9\u4e86\u7518\u8d3e\u5c14\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u8fd9\u4e2a\u6570\u5b57\u4e0e\u7f57\u76d8\u7814\u7a76\u4e0e\u53d1\u5c55\u5c402023\u5e748\u6708\u7684\u8bb0\u5f55\u4e0d\u540c\u3002\u5f53\u65f6\uff0c48.1%\u7684\u4f50\u79d1\u7ef4\u9009\u6c11\u9009\u62e9\u4e86\u7518\u8d3e\u5c14\uff0c\u53e6\u670922.9%\u7684\u4eba\u9009\u62e9\u4e86\u666e\u62c9\u535a\u6c83\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Kompas R&D \u8c03\u67e5\u4e8e 2023 \u5e74 11 \u6708 29 \u65e5\u81f3 12 \u6708 4 \u65e5\u8fdb\u884c\uff0c\u6d89\u53ca 1,364 \u540d\u53d7\u8bbf\u8005\u3002\u672c\u6b21\u8c03\u67e5\u7684\u8bef\u5dee\u8303\u56f4\u4e3a +\/- 2.65%\uff0c\u7f6e\u4fe1\u5ea6\u4e3a 95%\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u5370\u5ea6\u5c3c\u897f\u4e9a\u8c03\u67e5\u6d41\u7a0b\uff08ASI\uff09<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

ASI\u516c\u5e03\u4e86\u722a\u54c7\u5c9b\u603b\u7edf\u548c\u526f\u603b\u7edf\u5019\u9009\u4eba\u7684\u9009\u4e3e\u6027\u8c03\u67e5\u7ed3\u679c\u3002\u666e\u62c9\u535a\u6c83-\u7eaa\u4f2f\u4f26\u7ec4\u5408\u4ee5 34.2%<\/strong> \u7684\u5f53\u9009\u7387\u4f4d\u5c45\u7b2c\u4e00\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u8be5\u8c03\u67e5\u4e8e2023\u5e7411\u670828\u65e5\u81f312\u67085\u65e5\u5728\u722a\u54c7\u5c9b\u8fdb\u884c\uff0c\u5305\u62ec\u897f\u722a\u54c7\u4e07\u4e39\u3001\u4e2d\u722a\u54c7DKI\u96c5\u52a0\u8fbe\u3001\u4e1c\u722a\u54c7\u65e5\u60f9\u7279\u533a\u3002\u8be5\u8c03\u67e5\u91c7\u7528\u591a\u9636\u6bb5\u968f\u673a\u62bd\u6837\u65b9\u6cd5\u9762\u5bf9\u9762\u8fdb\u884c\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u8fd9\u9879\u8c03\u67e5\u6d89\u53ca 1,200 \u540d\u53d7\u8bbf\u8005\u3002\u5728 95% \u7684\u7f6e\u4fe1\u6c34\u5e73\u4e0b\uff0c\u8bef\u5dee\u5e45\u5ea6\u8fbe\u5230 \u00b1 2.9%\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u5370\u5ea6\u5c3c\u897f\u4e9a\u8c03\u67e5\u6d41\u7a0b\u6267\u884c\u4e3b\u4efb\u963f\u91cc\u00b7\u91cc\u592b\u5b89 (Ali Rif’an) \u89e3\u91ca\u4e86\u4e13\u95e8\u5728\u722a\u54c7\u5c9b\u8fdb\u884c\u8c03\u67e5\u7684\u539f\u56e0\u3002\u4ed6\u8bf4\uff0c2024 \u5e74\u9009\u4e3e\u7684\u4e00\u534a\u9009\u6c11\u6765\u81ea\u722a\u54c7\u5c9b\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u963f\u91cc\u5728 ASI \u9898\u4e3a\u722a\u54c7\u5c9b 2024 \u5e74\u603b\u7edf\u9009\u4e3e\u9009\u4e3e\u5730\u56fe\u7684\u8c03\u67e5\u62a5\u544a\u4e2d\u8868\u793a\uff1a\u201c\u4e3a\u4ec0\u4e48\u5728\u722a\u54c7\u5c9b\u8fdb\u884c\u8c03\u67e5\uff1f\u4ece\u4eba\u53e3\u7edf\u8ba1\u89d2\u5ea6\u6765\u770b\uff0cKPU \u6570\u636e\u663e\u793a 56% \u7684\u9009\u6c11\u5728\u722a\u54c7\u5c9b\u3002\u722a\u54c7\u9009\u6c11\u904d\u5e03\u5370\u5ea6\u5c3c\u897f\u4e9a\u5404\u5730\u3002\u201d Alia Hotel\uff0c\u96c5\u52a0\u8fbe\u5e02\u4e2d\u5fc3 Cikini\uff0c\u661f\u671f\u4e00\uff0811\/12\/2023\uff09\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

ASI\u7684\u8c03\u67e5\u7ed3\u679c\u663e\u793a\uff0c\u666e\u62c9\u535a\u6c83-\u5409\u5e03\u5170\u592b\u5987\u5728\u722a\u54c7\u5c9b\u8d62\u5f97\u4e86\u6700\u9ad8\u7968\u6570\uff0c\u5f53\u9009\u7387\u4e3a34.2%<\/strong>\u3002\u4f4d\u5c45\u7b2c\u4e8c\u7684\u662f Ganjar Pranowo-Mahfud Md\uff0c\u5176\u5f53\u9009\u7387\u4e3a 30.7%\uff0c\u5176\u6b21\u662f Anies Baswedan-Muhaimin Iskandar\uff0c\u5176\u5f53\u9009\u7387\u4e3a 26.3%\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u5728\u8fd9\u9879\u8c03\u67e5\u4e2d\uff0c\u67098.7%\u7684\u9009\u6c11\u8868\u793a\u4e0d\u77e5\u9053\/\u6ca1\u6709\u56de\u7b54\u3002ASI \u7684\u8fd9\u9879\u8c03\u67e5\u8fd8\u53d1\u73b0\uff0c\u4e0d\u4f1a\u6539\u53d8\u5bf9\u603b\u7edf\u548c\u526f\u603b\u7edf\u5019\u9009\u4eba\u7684\u9009\u62e9\u7684\u9009\u6c11\u6216\u5f3a\u529b\u9009\u6c11\u7684\u6bd4\u4f8b\u4e3a 48.6%\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u963f\u91cc\u8bf4\uff1a\u201c\u4e0e\u6b64\u540c\u65f6\uff0c\u8ba4\u4e3a\u4ecd\u53ef\u4ee5\u6539\u53d8\u7684\u4eba\u662f\u6447\u6446\u9009\u6c11\uff0844.0%\uff09\u548c\u72b9\u8c6b\u4e0d\u51b3\u7684\u9009\u6c11\uff087.4%\uff09\u3002\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

ASI\u7684\u8c03\u67e5\u8fd8\u89e3\u91ca\u4e86\u722a\u54c7\u5c9b\u9009\u6c11\u51b3\u5b9a2024\u5e74\u603b\u7edf\u9009\u4e3e\u6295\u7968\u7684\u539f\u56e0\uff0c\u7b2c\u4e00\u4e2a\u56e0\u7d20\u662f\u5de5\u4f5c\u8ba1\u5212\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e00\u6570\u5b57\u4e3a30.7%\u3002\u5f71\u54cd\u56e0\u7d20\u4f9d\u6b21\u4e3a\u8bda\u5b9e\u5b88\u4fe1\u54c1\u683c\uff0819.5%\uff09\u3001\u4ece\u653f\u7ecf\u5386\uff0810.6%\uff09\u3001\u667a\u529b\uff088.0%\uff09\u3001\u5173\u5fc3\u7fa4\u4f17\uff087.9%\uff09\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u963f\u91cc\u8868\u793a\uff0c\u8c03\u67e5\u7ed3\u679c\u663e\u793a\u722a\u54c7\u5c9b\u7684\u6295\u7968\u76c6\u5730\u4ecd\u7136\u5b58\u5728\u4e89\u8bae\u3002\u4ed6\u8ba4\u4e3a\uff0c\u4e0d\u5b58\u5728\u4e3b\u5bb0\u722a\u54c7\u7684\u603b\u7edf-\u526f\u603b\u7edf\u5019\u9009\u4eba\u5bf9\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u963f\u91cc\u8bf4\uff1a\u201c\u722a\u54c7\u5c9b\u603b\u7edf\u548c\u526f\u603b\u7edf\u5019\u9009\u4eba\u7684\u7ade\u4e89\u4ecd\u7136\u975e\u5e38\u6fc0\u70c8\uff0c\u56e0\u4e3a\u6ca1\u6709\u4eba\u5904\u4e8e\u7edd\u5bf9\u9886\u5148\u5730\u4f4d\u3002\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u6c11\u4f17\u4e2d\u5fc3<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u6c11\u4f17\u4e2d\u5fc3\u8c03\u67e5\u7814\u7a76\u6240\u53d1\u5e03\u6700\u65b0\u8c03\u67e5\u7ed3\u679c\uff0c\u5176\u4e2d\u4e00\u9879\u4e0e2024\u5e74\u603b\u7edf\u9009\u4e3e\u4e2d\u4e09\u5bf9\u603b\u7edf\u548c\u526f\u603b\u7edf\u5019\u9009\u4eba\u7684\u5f53\u9009\u6027\u6709\u5173\uff0c\u8c03\u67e5\u663e\u793a\u666e\u62c9\u535a\u6c83-\u5409\u5e03\u5170\u9886\u5148\u4e8e\u53e6\u5916\u4e24\u5bf9\u5019\u9009\u4eba\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u8fd9\u9879\u8c03\u67e5\u4e8e2023\u5e7411\u670828\u65e5\u81f312\u67085\u65e5\u8fdb\u884c\u3002\u53d7\u8bbf\u8005\u6837\u672c\u6309\u6bd4\u4f8b\u5206\u5e03\u5728\u5370\u5ea6\u5c3c\u897f\u4e9a38\u4e2a\u7701\uff0c\u5176\u4e2d\u5305\u62ec\u56db\uff08\u56db\uff09\u4e2a\u65b0\u81ea\u6cbb\u533a\uff0c\u5373\u4e2d\u5df4\u5e03\u4e9a\u3001\u897f\u5357\u90e8\u5df4\u5e03\u4e9a\u3001\u5c71\u533a\u5df4\u5e03\u4e9a\u548c\u5357\u5df4\u5e03\u4e9a\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u672c\u6b21\u8c03\u67e5\u7684\u6570\u636e\u6536\u96c6\u65b9\u6cd5\u662f\u4f7f\u7528\u6c11\u4f17\u4e2d\u5fc3\u8c03\u67e5\u5e94\u7528\u7a0b\u5e8f\u901a\u8fc7\u9762\u5bf9\u9762\u8bbf\u8c08\u7684\u65b9\u5f0f\u8fdb\u884c\u7684\uff0c\u91c7\u7528\u591a\u9636\u6bb5\u968f\u673a\u62bd\u6837\u65b9\u6cd5\u9009\u62e9\u4e86 1,200 \u540d\u53d7\u8bbf\u8005\u3002\u8bef\u5dee\u5e45\u5ea6 (MoE) \u4f30\u8ba1\u4e3a \u00b1 2.83%\uff0c\u7f6e\u4fe1\u5ea6\u4e3a 95%\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Populi \u7814\u7a76\u5458 Dimas Ramadhan \u89e3\u91ca\u8bf4\uff0cPrabowo-Gibran \u7684\u6392\u540d\u9ad8\u4e8e\u5019\u9009\u5bf9 Anies Baswedan-Muhaimin Iskandar \u548c Ganjar Pranowo-Mahfud Md\u3002Anies-Cak Imin \u548c Ganjar-Mahfud \u5f97\u5230\u4e86\u76f8\u540c\u7684\u6570\u5b57\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201c\u6570\u636e\u663e\u793a\uff0cPrabowo Subianto-Gibran Rakabuming Raka \u7ec4\u5408\u83b7\u5f97\u4e86\u6700\u9ad8\u7684\u9009\u4e3e\u652f\u6301\u7387\uff0c\u4e3a 46.7%<\/strong>\u3002\u5176\u6b21\u662f Ganjar Pranowo-Mahfud Md \u548c Anies Baswedan-Muhaimin Iskandar \u7ec4\u5408\uff0c\u83b7\u5f97\u4e86\u76f8\u540c\u7684\u6570\u5b57\uff0c\u5373 21.7%\uff0c\u201d\u8fea\u9a6c\u65af\u00b7\u62c9\u9a6c\u4e39 (Dimas Ramadhan) \u8bf4\u5728\u4ed6\u7684\u6f14\u8bb2\u4e2d\uff0c\u661f\u671f\u4e00\uff0811\/12\/2023\uff09\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u6839\u636e\u4eba\u6c11\u4e2d\u5fc3\u7684\u8c03\u67e5\uff0c3\u5bf9\u603b\u7edf\u548c\u526f\u603b\u7edf\u5019\u9009\u4eba\u7684\u5f53\u9009\u60c5\u51b5\u5982\u4e0b\uff1a<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u666e\u62c9\u535a\u6c83\u00b7\u82cf\u6bd4\u5b89\u6258-\u7eaa\u5e03\u5170\u00b7\u62c9\u5361\u5e03\u660e\uff1a46.7%<\/strong>
\u7518\u8d3e\u00b7\u666e\u62c9\u8bfa\u6c83-\u9a6c\u8d6b\u798f\u5fb7\uff1a21.7%
\u963f\u5c3c\u65af\u00b7\u5df4\u65af\u97e6\u4e39-\u7a46\u6d77\u660e\u00b7\u4f0a\u65af\u574e\u8fbe\u5c14\uff1a21.7%<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u672a\u5b9a\uff1a8.1%
\u62d2\u7edd\u7b54\u6848\uff1a1.8%<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u7f57\u4f0a\u00b7\u6469\u6839 Roy Morgan<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u7f57\u4f0a\u00b7\u6469\u6839\u53d1\u5e03\u4e86\u4e00\u9879\u6709\u5173 2024 \u5e74\u5370\u5ea6\u5c3c\u897f\u4e9a\u603b\u7edf\u9009\u4e3e\u7684\u8c03\u67e5\u7ed3\u679c\uff0c\u8be5\u8c03\u67e5\u57fa\u4e8e 2023 \u5e74 7 \u6708\u81f3 9 \u6708\u6536\u96c6\u7684\u6570\u636e\uff0c\u6d89\u53ca 2,630 \u540d\u9009\u6c11\u3002\u5728\u8c03\u67e5\u7ed3\u679c\u4e2d\uff0cGanjar\u636e\u8bf4\u4ee538%\u7684\u5f97\u5206\u6210\u4e3a\u6700\u4f73\u5019\u9009\u4eba\u3002\u666e\u62c9\u535a\u6c83\u4ee5 30% \u7684\u652f\u6301\u7387\u7d27\u968f\u5176\u540e\uff0c\u963f\u5c3c\u65af\u4ee5 25% \u7684\u652f\u6301\u7387\u6392\u540d\u7b2c\u4e09\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u6b64\u6b21\u6c11\u610f\u8c03\u67e5\u662f\u5728\u4e09\u4f4d\u4e3b\u8981\u5019\u9009\u4eba\u6b63\u5f0f\u5ba3\u5e03\u526f\u603b\u7edf\u5019\u9009\u4eba\u5e76\u4e8e2023\u5e7410\u6708\u6708\u5e95\u5411\u5927\u9009\u59d4\u5458\u4f1a\u767b\u8bb0\u786e\u8ba4\u5176\u5019\u9009\u8d44\u683c\u4e4b\u524d\u8fdb\u884c\u7684\u3002\u526f\u603b\u7edf\u5019\u9009\u4eba\u7684\u9009\u51fa\u9884\u8ba1\u5c06\u5bf9\u9009\u4e3e\u4ea7\u751f\u91cd\u5927\u5f71\u54cd\u7ed3\u679c\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Anies Baswedan-Muhaimin Iskandar \u548c Ganjar Pranowo-Mahfud MD \u7ec4\u5408\u4e8e 2023 \u5e74 10 \u6708 19 \u65e5\u5728 KPU \u6b63\u5f0f\u6ce8\u518c\u3002Prabowo Subianto-Gibran Rakabuming \u7ec4\u5408\u4e8e\u4e0b\u5468\u4e8e 2023 \u5e74 10 \u6708 25 \u65e5\u6b63\u5f0f\u6ce8\u518c\u3002\u7ade\u4e89\u5df2\u56f4\u7ed5<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u8fd9\u4e09\u540d\u5019\u9009\u4eba\u8fdb\u884c\u4e86\u5de9\u56fa\u3002\u652f\u6301\u6bcf\u4f4d\u5019\u9009\u4eba\u7684\u653f\u515a\u8054\u76df\u3002\u8fd9\u4e9b\u653f\u515a\u90fd\u53c2\u52a0\u7acb\u6cd5\u9009\u4e3e (pileg)\uff0c\u8be5\u9009\u4e3e\u5c06\u4e8e 2024 \u5e74 2 \u6708 14 \u65e5\u5370\u5ea6\u5c3c\u897f\u4e9a\u603b\u7edf\u9009\u4e3e\u540c\u4e00\u5929\u4e3e\u884c\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Poltracking Indonesia<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u4e0e\u7f57\u4f0a\u6469\u6839\u6c11\u610f\u8c03\u67e5\u4e0d\u540c\uff0cPoltracking Indonesia \u6307\u51fa\u4e86 Prabowo-Gibran \u7684\u4f18\u52bf\u3002\u8fd9\u5bf9\u7ec4\u5408\u7684\u5f53\u9009\u7387\u8fbe\u5230\u4e8645.2%<\/strong>\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u7518\u8d3e\u5c14-\u9a6c\u8d6b\u5bcc\u5fb7\u7684\u5f53\u9009\u7387\u4ec5\u4e3a27.3%\u3002\u4e0e\u6b64\u540c\u65f6\uff0c\u963f\u5c3c\u65af-\u67e5\u514b\u00b7\u4f0a\u660e\u7684\u5f53\u9009\u7387\u4e3a23.1%\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u4e0e 2023 \u5e74 11 \u6708\u76f8\u6bd4\uff0c\u666e\u62c9\u535a\u6c83-\u7eaa\u4f2f\u4f26\u7684\u5f53\u9009\u7387\u4e0a\u5347\u4e86 5%\uff0c\u800c\u7518\u8d3e\u5c14-\u9a6c\u8d6b\u798f\u5fb7\u7684\u5f53\u9009\u7387\u4e0b\u964d\u4e86 2.8%\u3002\u963f\u5c3c\u65af-\u6070\u514b\u00b7\u4f0a\u660e\u7684\u5f53\u9009\u7387\u540c\u671f\u4ece 24.4% \u7565\u6709\u4e0b\u964d\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Poltracking Indonesia \u4e8e 2023 \u5e74 11 \u6708 29 \u65e5\u81f3 12 \u6708 5 \u65e5\u8fdb\u884c\u4e86\u8fd9\u9879\u8c03\u67e5\u3002\u8c03\u67e5\u6d89\u53ca\u4f7f\u7528\u5206\u5c42\u591a\u9636\u6bb5\u968f\u673a\u62bd\u6837\u65b9\u6cd5\u9009\u51fa\u7684 1,220 \u540d\u53d7\u8bbf\u8005\u3002\u5728 95% \u7684\u7f6e\u4fe1\u6c34\u5e73\u4e0b\uff0c\u8be5\u8c03\u67e5\u7684\u8bef\u5dee\u5e45\u5ea6\u4e3a +\/- 2.9%\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u6765\u6e90\uff1aCNBC \u5370\u5ea6\u5c3c\u897f\u4e9a<\/strong><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

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